Life's Risks Calculator
Merlin Risk Wiz. Calculators & Tools
What are the odds?
A major health event can be financially devastating but you can plan to be prepared.
A serious health event — like a life-threatening cancer, heart attack, stroke, disabling injury, or mental health condition — can hit hard and fast. It could derail your income, your lifestyle, and the future you’re building for your family.
But here’s the good news: you can plan ahead and protect what matters most.
Take just 60 seconds with our Life Risks Calculator to see your personal likelihood of:
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Becoming severely disabled before retirement
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Experiencing a critical illness
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Passing away before retirement
These eye-opening estimates help you understand the real risks and make smarter, more confident insurance decisions.
By using this calculator, you confirm you have read and agreed to our Calculator Purpose, Methodology, Assumptions and Disclaimer further below.
Life's Risks Calculator
Step 1. Tell us a little about yourself
Step 2. Your results
You’ll instantly see clear percentages showing the chance of these events happening before you retire — plus the combined risk of any one occurring.
These numbers often surprise people… and that’s exactly why they’re so valuable.
Becoming severely disabled before retirement:
%
Becoming critically ill before retirement:
%
Dying before retirement:
%
Any one of: severely disabled, critically ill, or dying before retirement:
%
Read: Risk Wiz. Insurance Guide
Why Understanding Your Risks Changes Everything
Most Australians underestimate these risks — until it’s too late.
Seeing your actual odds helps you:
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Reduce insurance uncertainty
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Avoid being under-protected or over-paying
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Gain peace of mind that your family and lifestyle are better safeguarded
Don’t leave it to chance.
Take control today and protect what matters most.
Ready to Act?
Or go one step further:
Life insurance doesn’t have to be complicated. Let us make it simple, clear, and effective for you.
Calculator Purpose, Methodology, Assumptions and Disclaimer
Calculator Purpose
This calculator provides illustrative estimates of the approximate probabilities of death, the onset of severe or profound disability, and critical illness. It is designed solely to assist individuals in understanding the general order of magnitude of these risks for personal financial planning purposes.
The tool is generic and does not recommend, endorse, or promote any specific financial product or insurer.
Methodology
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Mortality rates (qₓ): Australian Life Tables 2020–22, published by the Australian Government Actuary (AGA) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
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Severe/profound disability onset: Prevalence data from the ABS Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDAC) 2022, with incidence derived using standard actuarial no-recovery approximation methods.
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Critical illness incidence: Aggregated Australian life insurance claims statistics published by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) and industry benchmark studies.
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Occupation and smoker adjustments: Approximate loadings based on standard industry rating practices used by major Australian insurers and superannuation funds. They are not exact for any single insurer and are intended only to demonstrate the relative impact of these factors.
Key Assumptions
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All rates are period-based and reflect recent observed experience (primarily 2020–2024). They do not project future changes in mortality or morbidity.
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No recovery from severe/profound disability is assumed once the state is entered.
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Annual rates at the user's current age are assumed to remain constant for cumulative probability calculations.
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The three events are treated as approximately independent within each year.
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Occupation categories: White Collar refers to office-based or professional roles with no manual duties (base rates). Non-White Collar refers to roles involving manual work, trades, driving or physical duties (moderate loadings applied).
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Probabilities are conditional on the individual being alive and not having experienced the relevant event at the start of the year.
Important Limitations
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The figures represent population averages and do not account for individual health, family history, lifestyle (beyond smoker status), or specific occupational duties.
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Actual insurance claim probabilities and premiums may differ significantly due to medical underwriting, exact policy definitions (e.g., “Any Occupation” vs “Own Occupation” TPD), and insurer-specific tables.
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Critical illness occupation loadings are generally milder than those for Total and Permanent Disability, as the benefit is triggered by medical diagnosis rather than inability to work.
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Cumulative probabilities assume constant future rates and do not reflect potential medical advances or changes in health trends.
Disclaimer
This calculator is provided for illustrative and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, insurance advice, or actuarial advice. The outputs are approximations and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any insurance purchase, retirement planning, or financial decision.
Users should consult a qualified financial adviser or licensed insurance professional before making any decisions.
All data are drawn from official ABS, AGA, and APRA sources as at 2024–2025.
Last reviewed: April 2026